Forrester says Europe’s efforts to expand semiconductor manufacturing will not, by themselves, deliver technological sovereignty because the region remains heavily dependent on US cloud services, software and chip design. The finding matters because European governments are investing heavily in domestic fabs and digital autonomy, yet the analyst expects China and the US to retain a decisive advantage across the broader technology stack.

Forrester rates China’s overall tech sovereignty at 82% and the US at 79%, while major European economies are forecast to reach only 29–36% by 2030. Although Europe’s chip production capacity is expected to improve, it designs about 1% of global chips and is projected to reach 11.3% of global semiconductor output by 2030, below the EU’s 20% target. AWS, Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud hold roughly 65% of Europe’s cloud market, and Forrester argues that European “sovereign cloud” offerings remain ultimately owned by US companies.