Ex-congressman George Santos banned from betting platform for life
Developing story first seen 2 hours ago
Kalshi, the US prediction-market operator, has confirmed George Santos's ban is permanent, releasing further details of its disciplinary action against the former congressman for suspected insider dealing. The company said Santos placed bets in February on whether he would attend Donald Trump's State of the Union address, an outcome he could directly influence, and that misleading public statements he made about his plans moved the market before he traded. Santos responded on X by thanking Kalshi and warning "let's see how much longer you guys are around for", while the episode adds to mounting regulatory pressure on prediction markets such as Kalshi and rival Polymarket amid a rise in suspicious trading activity.
Kalshi's compliance team found Santos placed a series of sizeable bets between 2 and 25 February, some based on false or misleading comments about his plans, earning him $17,839.57; the firm referred the case to federal authorities over the summer and separately fined him $71,356. He also agreed in July to pay $35,000 to settle a Commodity Futures Trading Commission investigation into the same trades. Santos, expelled from Congress in 2023 and later imprisoned for wire fraud and identity theft, had his seven-year sentence commuted by Trump in 2025 after serving three months.
- Kalshi confirms lifetime ban on ex-congressman George Santos for insider-style betting
- He profited $17,839 wagering on his own State of the Union attendance
- Santos already fined $71,356 by Kalshi and $35,000 by US regulator
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Kalshi is one of a small number of American "prediction market" platforms that let people bet real money on the outcome of political and other events, rather than treating them as pure novelties. George Santos is a former Republican congressman from New York who was expelled from the House in 2023 and later jailed for fraud, before Donald Trump commuted his prison sentence in 2025. This story concerns Santos's dealings with Kalshi, specifically a wager he placed on whether he himself would turn up to a high-profile political event.
The core issue is that Santos was betting on something he had direct control over and, according to Kalshi, put out misleading statements about his own plans that affected the betting odds before he placed his trades. That combination looks similar to insider trading in financial markets, where someone profits from private knowledge or influence not available to other participants. Kalshi has also separately fined him and reported the matter to authorities, while regulators have been fined him separately over the same episode.
This case matters beyond Santos because prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have grown rapidly and increasingly resemble financial exchanges, yet oversight of them is still developing. Cases of suspected manipulation raise questions about whether these platforms can be trusted to produce fair odds, which is central to their appeal and their expanding role in American public life.
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