Politics news and discussion on TalkFuse.
Exit polls give Karen Bass edge over Nithya Raman as younger voters threaten to shake up LA mayor’s race
Karen Bass held a 12-point lead over Nithya Raman in two exit polls, but a late increase in younger voters appeared to put the Los Angeles mayoral race in doubt. With nearly half the vote counted shortly after polls closed, Bass led by just 50.9% to 49.1%, leaving open the possibility of a Raman comeback as more ballots were tallied.
The polls showed Bass gaining support among Black, Republican and over-50 respondents, while Raman remained popular with younger voters and held a nine-point advantage among Latino respondents. The under-50 share of poll respondents rose from 31% in October to 40% in November. The surveys covered 1,966 and 1,602 people who had already voted and were conducted by English-language text, which may have excluded some voters; a projection incorporating later votes put Raman ahead, 51.5% to 48.5%.
In short
- Bass led by 12 points in two exit polls.
- The reported vote count showed a much narrower race.
- Younger voters could shape the final result.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Bass’s lead in two exit polls and her support among Black, Republican and over-50 respondents suggest she may have broader support among voters who had already cast ballots. The surveys offer a useful early indication, though their English-language text format and limited reach mean they may not fully reflect the electorate.
The case against
Raman’s strength among younger and Latino voters, alongside the rising share of younger respondents, gives reason to think later-counted ballots could shift the result. A projection incorporating those votes put her ahead, while the close count and possible survey exclusions make an early lead an uncertain guide to the final outcome.
Explained simply
The Los Angeles mayor leads the city government and helps set priorities for services such as housing, transport and public safety. The office is elected by city voters, and ballots can be counted at different times depending on how and when they are cast.
Karen Bass is the incumbent mayor, while Nithya Raman is a city council member. Their contest has drawn attention to differences in support across age and ethnic groups, though exit polls are estimates from people who have voted and may not represent all ballots.
The result matters because the winner will guide decisions affecting a large, diverse city facing pressures including housing costs and homelessness. A close race can also show how turnout among different groups shapes local elections.