President Donald Trump has signalled support for banning United States diesel exports, a proposal that could substantially affect Australian fuel prices despite Australia not being a direct importer of American diesel. Energy analysts warn this could trigger fuel rationing and push diesel prices up by approximately 50 per cent, potentially exceeding $4 per litre within weeks, adding further pressure to the cost-of-living crisis facing Australian households and businesses.

Australia is the world's largest importer of diesel whilst the United States is the world's largest exporter. A US export ban would force Australian buyers to compete for supplies from alternative sources including Brazil, China, Turkey and the European Union, significantly intensifying global demand for those supplies. As of mid-September, diesel prices were approximately $2.70 per litre across major Australian cities, already elevated by Middle East tensions affecting key shipping routes. Energy analysts warned that Europe would be severely impacted as well, further heightening competition and pressure on Australian prices, with Brent crude oil standing at around US$104 per barrel.