US forces are completing their final withdrawal from Iraq by 30 September, ending a military presence spanning over two decades in which 4,500 Americans were killed. The departure, agreed under President Biden and executed by the Trump administration, is being celebrated by Iran and its allied militia groups as a historic victory, whilst security analysts warn it could create a dangerous power vacuum. Iraqi security experts fear the withdrawal may prove premature, potentially allowing ISIS to resurge whilst enabling Iran-backed armed factions to consolidate their influence over Iraq's security and political institutions unchecked.

The withdrawal reflects Iraq's broad desire for full sovereignty, though concerns persist about the country's readiness to assume complete security responsibility without external military support. Iraq has long maintained a precarious balance between US and Iranian influence, with the two powers occasionally using Iraqi territory as a proxy battlefield—notably when the US killed Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani in a 2020 strike on Baghdad Airport. Some Iraqi officials, including Sunni tribal leaders from formerly insurgent strongholds like Fallujah, worry that the hasty departure could create a security vacuum rather than genuine stability, whilst Iran positions the withdrawal as vindication of its regional "axis of resistance" strategy.