Gavin Newsom sees dramatic shift in presidential odds after midterm election

Gavin Newsom’s prospects of winning the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination fell to an all-time low on prediction markets after the midterm elections. The shift suggests traders are turning towards other possible contenders, though market odds reflect betting activity rather than a reliable forecast of the outcome.

Newsom’s chances briefly dropped to 7% and stood at 11% in the latest snapshot, against more than $28.3 million in trading on his prospects. Senator Jon Ossoff led at 27%, followed by Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 17%; Kamala Harris was at 6%, while Pete Buttigieg and Josh Shapiro each had 5%. The wider 2028 presidential market had attracted over $1.3 billion in trading, despite the election being two years away.