Former US congressman George Santos has settled with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission over trades on Kalshi prediction markets linked to his attendance at the 2026 State of the Union address. Regulators said he made misleading social-media posts about his plans, moving contract prices in ways that benefited his positions; the case highlights concern over market manipulation and insider trading on prediction platforms.

Santos agreed to pay a $17,500 civil penalty and surrender $17,569.98 in trading profits, and he is barred from prediction-market trading for three years. Kalshi said it flagged the trades to regulators and plans its own enforcement action, potentially using any recovered penalties to reimburse affected traders.