German far-right set for big win in eastern state – exit polls
Developed over time first seen 2 months ago
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has secured a landslide victory in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, taking 43.8% of the vote against 17.2% for the conservative CDU, according to preliminary results. The win falls just short of an outright majority, meaning the AfD cannot immediately govern alone, but it marks a historic moment as no far-right party has controlled a German state since the Second World War. The result has been widely described by commentators and opponents as a watershed for German politics, with the AfD claiming a mandate to govern despite the shortfall.
The AfD is projected to hold 39 of 83 seats, three short of a majority, and state leader Ulrich Siegmund has ruled out leading a minority government or forming coalitions, saying fresh elections would only boost the party's support further. Possible paths forward include informal backing from the smaller left-wing populist BSW party, or individual defections from other parties' MPs, though all mainstream parties bar the BSW continue to refuse cooperation with the AfD. The result drew international reaction, with Donald Trump and Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev praising the outcome, while Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk condemned it, reflecting the wider European significance attached to the vote.
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In short
- AfD wins 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt, but short of a majority
- First potential far-right state government since WWII remains unresolved
- Coalition talks and possible new elections loom as AfD refuses to lead a minority
How this story developed
- 2 months ago Exit polls in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt point to a commanding victory for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which is projected to take 44.5% of the vote against 18.5% for the conservative CDU.
- 2 months ago The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has secured a landslide victory in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, taking 43.8% of the vote against 17.2% for the conservative CDU, according to preliminary results.
- 2 months ago Exit polls in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt point to a large victory for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), putting it far ahead of mainstream rivals and raising the prospect of the party taking control of a German state government for the first time since the Second World War.
Full account
Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) appeared on course for its strongest-ever regional result on Sunday, with exit polls from public broadcasters ARD and ZDF putting the party on 44 to 44.5 per cent of the vote in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt. That figure left the governing Christian Democrats (CDU), led nationally by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, trailing a distant second on roughly 18.5 per cent. Should the projections hold once official counting is complete, it would mark the best showing yet by a far-right party in a German state election since the Second World War, though it remained uncertain on the night whether the AfD had secured enough seats to form a government on its own.
Celebrations broke out among AfD supporters as the exit poll figures were broadcast, with the party's election-night gathering reportedly erupting into cheers and, later, a rendition of the national anthem. The state's AfD frontman, 35-year-old Ulrich Siegmund, declared that the result made history, while the party's joint national leaders, Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla, were said to be delighted by an outcome that exceeded what earlier opinion polling had suggested. For the CDU's regional leader and state premier, Sven Schulze, the night brought a more sober assessment: he acknowledged defeat and described the campaign as unusually gruelling for his party.
Whether the AfD can actually take charge of the state government now hinges on arithmetic in the new parliament rather than on the scale of its lead. Other parties still need to clear the 5 per cent threshold required for representation, and the AfD's prospects of an outright majority depend heavily on whether one or more smaller parties fall short of that bar. On the question of coalition-building, the two accounts struck slightly different notes: Siegmund was reported as ruling out sharing power with any rival party, framing a go-it-alone approach as the only option left to him, whereas Weidel indicated the AfD stood ready to talk to all parties, a milder public line from the national leadership.
The result carries weight beyond Saxony-Anhalt's population of around 2.1 million, since a state government controls areas such as policing, education and cultural policy, and a win would be the first breach of the so-called 'firewall' under which mainstream German parties have refused to cooperate with the AfD nationally. The stakes are sharpened by the fact that domestic intelligence classifies the Saxony-Anhalt branch of the AfD as right-wing extremist, a label Siegmund disputes. One report placed more emphasis on Siegmund's rising public profile — including his mocking response to being labelled 'Germany's most dangerous man' by a news magazine — and on the AfD's anti-immigration, Moscow-friendly platform, while the other focused more closely on the mechanics of coalition-building and the mood at the count. Around 1.7 million people were eligible to vote in a contest both accounts described as a potentially historic test of whether Germany's postwar consensus against far-right rule at state level can hold.
Where outlets differ
From the full account, which is AI-written from the sources:
Source 2 quotes Weidel saying the AfD would talk to all parties, while Source 1 emphasises Siegmund's refusal to govern with any other party — a notable difference in tone between the national and state-level messaging.
Source 1 focuses more on the mechanics of coalition arithmetic (the 5% threshold and its effect on AfD's majority chances) and the scene at AfD's election-night event (cheering, singing the national anthem).
Source 2 provides more background colour and context, including Siegmund's 'Germany's most dangerous man' magazine nickname, his quotes to Bild, and framing the AfD as anti-immigration and Moscow-friendly, plus practical voting details (1.7 million eligible voters, polling hours).
Minor factual framing differs: Source 1 cites Saxony-Anhalt's population (2.1 million) while Source 2 cites the number of eligible voters (1.7 million).
Left-leaning outlets 1
Only here: suggest, lead, regional, election
Centre outlets 1
Only here: eastern, state
Right-leaning outlets 1
Only here: germany, hard, landslide, victory, show
Every side used: exit, polls, right
Headline columns compared word for word; nothing in them is AI-written.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Supporters of this result argue it reflects the legitimate will of voters in Saxony-Anhalt, many of whom feel that mainstream parties have ignored their concerns over immigration, economic decline in the east, and a sense of cultural and political marginalisation since reunification. They see the AfD's rise as a democratic corrective, a signal that established parties must respond to voters' priorities rather than dismiss them, and they reject the extremist label as a politically motivated attempt to delegitimise a party that has won its support through the ballot box like any other.
The case against
Critics warn that a party classified by the state's own domestic intelligence service as far-right extremist gaining control of policing, education and cultural policy represents a serious threat to democratic norms and to the rights of minorities, and that the symbolism of a far-right party governing a German state for the first time since 1945 carries a weight that cannot be waved away as ordinary electoral politics. They argue that mainstream parties and institutions have a responsibility to defend liberal democratic safeguards, and that normalising the AfD's rhetoric and governance risks eroding protections built specifically in response to Germany's history.
Explained simply
Saxony-Anhalt is one of Germany's 16 states, in the formerly communist east, and is currently voting in an election for its regional parliament. The state government there controls areas such as schools, police and cultural policy, and the vote is being watched closely because it could show whether a far-right party can now win outright power in a German region for the first time since Nazi rule ended in 1945.
The Alternative for Germany, known as the AfD, is a nationalist party that has grown rapidly in the former East Germany, campaigning on tougher immigration rules and scepticism towards the European Union. It has long been kept out of government by other parties refusing to work with it, and Germany's domestic intelligence agencies in some regions, including Saxony-Anhalt, formally classify local branches of the party as extremist, a designation the party disputes. Its main rival in this election is the CDU, the mainstream conservative party that has governed the state until now.
The result matters beyond Saxony-Anhalt because it feeds into a wider debate about the AfD's rising popularity across Germany and whether the long-standing approach of other parties refusing to form coalitions with it remains workable.
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