Scottish nationalists have pounced on a comment by Andy Burnham during Prime Minister's Questions in which he suggested there was no majority public support in Scotland for a fresh independence referendum, only for polling expert Sir John Curtice to say that claim could be challenged. Burnham had argued a new vote could only happen if there was "a majority of public support" for one, drawing a comparison with Northern Ireland's Good Friday Agreement mechanism. The exchange has reignited the independence debate, prompting First Minister John Swinney to write to Burnham demanding clarity on the conditions for holding another referendum.

Curtice told BBC Radio Scotland that both sides could find evidence for their case, noting recent opinion polls put support for independence at roughly 52 to 48 per cent, with a majority of Holyrood MSPs also backing independence, though only just over 40 per cent voted for pro-independence parties in May's election. He recalled that the 2014 referendum, in which 55 per cent voted to stay in the UK, had failed to settle the constitutional question, leaving support "around 50/50" for about seven years. Curtice said nationalists would need to push support closer to 60 per cent before a new vote became hard to avoid, concluding that neither side currently holds a decisive position.