Global food prices reached their highest level in three and a half years in July, driven by heatwaves, drought and conflicts disrupting crop production and trade. The rise matters because higher international commodity costs are likely to feed through to supermarket prices in coming months, while worsening food insecurity in vulnerable regions.

The UN FAO food price index rose from 130.3 in June to 131.1 in July; cereal prices increased 3.4%, including a 5.8% rise in wheat, while sugar rose 5.6% and vegetable oils 2%. Attacks affecting Black Sea exports, hot and dry conditions in major growing areas, fertiliser trade through the Strait of Hormuz and Brazilian ethanol rules all added pressure; meat and dairy prices fell. Europe’s June heatwave reportedly destroyed an estimated 9m tonnes of grain, and the World Food Programme warns El Niño could push 50 million people into acute hunger before the end of next year.