Global temperatures are set to exceed 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels in 2026, likely the second-warmest year on record

Copernicus says global temperatures will almost certainly average more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in 2026, making it only the second calendar year to do so after 2024. The forecast signals accelerating warming, but one year above the threshold does not mean the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal has been formally breached.

Copernicus expects 2026 to be the second-warmest year on record, though it puts the chance of it surpassing 2024 at 20%. October was the warmest October recorded, at 1.75°C above pre-industrial levels, and the 2023–2026 average is also expected to exceed 1.5°C. UNEP says limiting the size and duration of an overshoot is vital; its pathway for returning to 1.5°C by 2100 involves cutting emissions by 69% by 2040 from 2025 levels.