A local poll has put Democratic Arkansas Senate candidate Hallie Shoffner three points ahead of Republican incumbent Tom Cotton, prompting some Republican strategists to warn of broader midterm risks for Donald Trump and the party in southern states. The result matters because Arkansas strongly backed Trump in 2024, although other Republican operatives dispute the poll and say it is an outlier.

The Hendrix College poll placed Shoffner on 47% and Cotton on 44%, while a separate JL Partners poll for the Washington Examiner gave Cotton a 16-point lead. Shoffner, a sixth-generation farmer, has focused on fuel and food costs and criticised Cotton’s support for US military action in Iran; Democrats need four net Senate seats to take control and are targeting several Republican-held states.