Half of America braces for Trump to reject midterm results as chilling poll exposes doubts even inside his own party
A Daily Mail/YouGov poll has found that more than half of Americans (52%) believe President Trump would refuse to accept a Republican defeat in the November congressional elections. This raises significant concerns about Trump's willingness to respect election results, following his refusal to concede the 2020 presidential election and subsequent efforts to overturn those outcomes.
The survey of 1,053 US adults, conducted 2–5 October with a margin of error of ±4.2 percentage points, also found that 74% of Americans—including 72% of Republicans—believe Trump should accept the results if his party loses. However, 49% of respondents said Trump's campaigning is hurting the GOP's election prospects, compared with just 20% who said it is helping. Democrats are currently polling 8.2 points ahead of Republicans nationally in the race for House control.
- 52% of Americans believe Trump won't accept a Republican loss
- 49% say his campaigning is hurting the GOP's prospects
- 74% of Americans, including Republicans, think he should accept results
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Donald Trump lost the 2020 presidential election to Joe Biden but refused to accept the result, instead contesting it through legal and political means. On 6 January 2021, some of his supporters attempted to disrupt the formal certification by storming the Capitol building. This episode raised significant concerns among many Americans about Trump's willingness to accept electoral defeat in the future.
The United States holds elections for Congress every two years, with midterms scheduled for November 2026. Trump remains an influential figure in American politics and is actively campaigning for Republican congressional candidates. Given his conduct following the 2020 election, observers and voters are focused on how Trump might respond if Republicans perform poorly.
For democratic systems to work effectively, political leaders must ultimately accept election results that voters determine. Trump's reaction to a potential Republican defeat would be significant because it could influence how Americans view the legitimacy of elections and whether political norms around accepting results hold.
Both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Trump's refusal to concede the 2020 election, his pursuit of legal challenges to overturn results, and his encouragement of supporters to oppose certification established a troubling pattern of dismissing democratic outcomes when they proved unfavourable. That a majority of Americans now expect him to do the same with midterm results, and that 72% of Republicans believe he should accept election results, reflects not paranoia but a reasonable assessment of his demonstrated behaviour. This represents a genuine threat to democratic norms that transcends ordinary political disagreement.
The case against
Speculative polling about hypothetical scenarios provides little insight into how anyone would actually behave. Trump accepted Republican losses before returning to politics, and pursuing legal challenges in 2020—whilst controversial—fell within the existing legal framework rather than representing unprecedented autocratic behaviour. The selective focus on Trump's hypothetical refusal to accept results, without similar scrutiny of other political figures who have questioned elections, suggests this narrative serves particular political interests rather than reflecting a balanced assessment of democratic health.