Polymarket and Kalshi offer wagers on US health crises and trials

Polymarket and Kalshi are offering wagers on US public health events, including vaccine policies, measles cases and drug trial results. Experts warn that these markets could influence public decisions or medical research, while raising concerns about gambling and limited oversight.

The platforms describe their contracts as financial derivatives, placing them under federal commodities oversight rather than state gambling rules; several states have sued, alleging they operate as gambling sites. Critics say markets tied to FDA decisions and clinical trials could reward people for leaking confidential information or create incentives to affect outcomes. Kalshi says its clinical trial markets are a pilot intended to make specialised knowledge more available to the public.