History Says ‘GTA 6’ May Be the Biggest Game of the Year, but Not the Best
Grand Theft Auto VI is set to be the best-selling and most talked-about video game of 2026, but history suggests it may not walk away with Game of the Year honours. Rockstar's two previous blockbusters, Grand Theft Auto V and Red Dead Redemption 2, both lost out at major award ceremonies despite their commercial dominance, with judges favouring more focused, emotionally driven titles such as The Last of Us and God of War (2018) over Rockstar's sprawling open worlds. The article argues this pattern could repeat in 2026, with three rivals—Marvel's Wolverine, Gears of War: E-Day and a Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time remake—all well placed to challenge GTA VI for critical acclaim, even if none can match its sales.
Marvel's Wolverine, from Spider-Man developer Insomniac, launches on 15 September and is seen as a strong contender thanks to a tighter, less open-world-heavy structure and more visceral combat, despite the studio never having won Game of the Year. Gears of War: E-Day, due 6 October, is tipped as an even bigger threat after its multiplayer beta drew widespread praise, and a strong campaign could make it Xbox's first-ever Game of the Year nominee and winner. Gamers have bought a combined 317 million copies of GTA V and Red Dead Redemption 2, showing the scale of public appetite for Rockstar's games, but the piece notes that critics and award panels have repeatedly prioritised smaller-scale, character-driven experiences over sheer size and popularity.
In short
- GTA VI tipped to dominate sales but possibly not awards
- Rockstar's past two blockbusters both lost Game of the Year races
- Marvel's Wolverine and Gears of War: E-Day seen as chief 2026 rivals
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
GTA VI could merit Game of the Year recognition if its scale, craft and popular appeal are matched by a compelling story and memorable play. Its predecessors’ commercial success shows how strongly Rockstar’s open worlds resonate, and awards need not favour smaller games simply because they are more focused or emotionally intimate.
The case against
Commercial dominance does not by itself make a game the year’s strongest artistic or critical achievement. Award panels may reasonably favour a more tightly structured game if it delivers greater narrative focus, emotional impact or consistent design, and the past results for Rockstar’s blockbusters suggest GTA VI will face that challenge.
Explained simply
Grand Theft Auto is a series of open-world games made by Rockstar, in which players explore large fictional cities and follow crime stories. Its recent releases, Grand Theft Auto V and Red Dead Redemption 2, sold exceptionally well, but major award panels chose other games for their top honours.
Game of the Year awards are decided by critics or industry panels, whose choices can differ from what sells most or attracts the most attention. Past winners such as The Last of Us and God of War (2018) have been praised for focused stories and character-driven play.
The games mentioned as possible rivals include Marvel’s Wolverine, made by the studio behind the Spider-Man games, and Gears of War: E-Day, part of a long-running Xbox series. The story matters because it highlights how commercial popularity and critical recognition can measure different things in the video game industry.