Grand Theft Auto VI is set to be the best-selling and most talked-about video game of 2026, but history suggests it may not walk away with Game of the Year honours. Rockstar's two previous blockbusters, Grand Theft Auto V and Red Dead Redemption 2, both lost out at major award ceremonies despite their commercial dominance, with judges favouring more focused, emotionally driven titles such as The Last of Us and God of War (2018) over Rockstar's sprawling open worlds. The article argues this pattern could repeat in 2026, with three rivals—Marvel's Wolverine, Gears of War: E-Day and a Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time remake—all well placed to challenge GTA VI for critical acclaim, even if none can match its sales.

Marvel's Wolverine, from Spider-Man developer Insomniac, launches on 15 September and is seen as a strong contender thanks to a tighter, less open-world-heavy structure and more visceral combat, despite the studio never having won Game of the Year. Gears of War: E-Day, due 6 October, is tipped as an even bigger threat after its multiplayer beta drew widespread praise, and a strong campaign could make it Xbox's first-ever Game of the Year nominee and winner. Gamers have bought a combined 317 million copies of GTA V and Red Dead Redemption 2, showing the scale of public appetite for Rockstar's games, but the piece notes that critics and award panels have repeatedly prioritised smaller-scale, character-driven experiences over sheer size and popularity.