RBA rate rise weakens Albanese’s case for an early election

Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock’s warning that Australians feel poorer, alongside a fifth interest rate rise this year, has put pressure on Anthony Albanese’s economic message and hopes of calling an early election. The article argues that weaker growth, persistent inflation and rising unemployment could make waiting until the scheduled election more attractive for Labor.

The cash rate has reached 4.85 per cent, its highest level in nearly two decades, and the RBA expects inflation to remain above target until mid-2028. It does not forecast a recession, though the article says a per capita recession in 2027 is possible. Bullock says total demand remains excessive, while Treasurer Jim Chalmers disputes that government budgets are driving inflation; an upcoming budget update is presented as a test of whether Labor will make meaningful savings.