A Daily Mail graphic maps out a sharp rise in Russian "grey zone" hybrid attacks against Europe throughout 2026, ranging from fighter jets harassing RAF aircraft over the Black Sea to drone incursions into Nato airspace and suspected arson attacks. Experts warn the tempo of these operations has increased compared with 2025 and 2024, with Vladimir Putin deliberately keeping actions below the threshold that would trigger Nato's Article 5 collective defence clause, even as the cumulative campaign is judged deeply alarming by security officials and military figures.

Former British Army officer Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon said Russia is building bases specifically to launch drones into Nato territory and warned the harassment could be a precursor to a direct attack in the Baltics or along the Lithuania-Poland border. Incidents cited include drones disabling systems near a Ukrainian aircraft at Leipzig-Halle Airport in Germany in August, a Russian Su-27 jet coming within 20ft of an RAF Rivet Joint aircraft over the Black Sea in April, and drones launched from a disguised fishing trawler that loitered over RAF Lakenheath, RAF Mildenhall and RAF Feltwell in November 2024, confirmed as Russian by the Ministry of Defence in July 2026. Romania, Moldova and Poland have faced repeated incursions, and security sources believe Britain, including defence manufacturers supplying Ukraine, will increasingly be tested next.