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Human Extinction Scheduled for…Huh, How About That? Today!
A 1960s population projection predicting that humanity would reach “infinity” and annihilate itself on 13 November 2026 has failed: people are still here. The article uses the missed forecast to show how projections based on extending past trends can overlook major changes in human behaviour.
The global fertility rate has fallen from about five children per woman in the early 1960s to around the replacement level of 2.1, while the UN projects population will rise from 8.2 billion to 10.3 billion in the 2080s before easing to 10.2 billion by century’s end. Some researchers instead predict an earlier population peak and decline, and the article notes that past population fears helped justify coercive policies such as China’s one-child policy and involuntary sterilisation in India.
In short
- A 1960s prediction of population-driven human extinction did not come true.
- Global fertility has fallen from about five children per woman to near replacement level.
- Demographers now debate whether population decline may become a concern.