India, the world's largest sugar consumer, is importing 1 million tonnes of sugar for the first time in nearly a decade after prices jumped almost 40% in two months, threatening to dampen a festive and wedding season that traditionally drives heavy sweet consumption. The shortfall stems largely from lower-than-expected sugarcane output, worsened by reduced monsoon rainfall linked to El Niño, hoarding and tighter global supplies, but experts note the government also overestimated production and permitted exports before the scale of the shortage became clear, raising questions about the reliability of its forecasts.

Sugar production this season (October 2025 to September 2026) is now projected at 30.6 million tonnes, 11% below the earlier estimate of 34.3 million tonnes, while retail prices have risen from around 40-45 rupees a kilo in May-June to over 58-60 rupees in August. Roughly 800,000 tonnes had already been exported before shipments were halted in May, leaving little buffer given domestic consumption of over 28 million tonnes and a further three million tonnes earmarked for ethanol production. To ease the squeeze, port-based refineries will be allowed to sell duty-free sugar domestically from September, and mills have been urged to start crushing cane early, though analysts warn erratic weather could also limit next season's harvest.