Iran's economy is in deep crisis as the United States launches a new sanctions campaign, "Operation Economic Outcast", against a backdrop of runaway inflation, a collapsing currency and fuel shortages that many Iranians already find overwhelming. The situation matters because it threatens to push millions further into poverty while raising the risk of social unrest, forcing the country's political leadership to weigh painful measures, such as cutting fuel subsidies, against fears of a repeat of the violent protests triggered by a 2019 petrol price rise.

Food prices have soared, with vegetable oil up 383% year-on-year, eggs up 294%, chicken up 177% and red meat up 148%, while annual inflation reached 84.4% in August. The rial has hit record lows against the dollar, households are cutting back on meat and medicine, and long queues formed at petrol stations in Tehran and Mashhad this week amid closures and panic buying. Officials have acknowledged that vested political interests are complicit in fuel smuggling, while the government has moved to restrict future poverty statistics, requiring security council approval before publication, as authorities increasingly frame domestic hardship as part of the wider confrontation with the US.