Kalshi says midterm favourites led in 479 of 487 races as trading topped $2.5bn

Kalshi says election market favourites won or were leading in 479 of 487 races in the 2026 US midterms, presenting the result as evidence that prediction markets can forecast elections accurately. The company also claimed its forecasts outperformed several polling models, while trading on election outcomes grew substantially.

Kalshi reported more than $2.5 billion in election-market trading, up from $1.3 billion during the 2024 cycle. Its figures use market prices from 5pm ET on election night, before votes were counted; the reported success rate was 99 per cent for House races and 97 per cent for Senate and gubernatorial contests. The Texas Senate race drew nearly $198 million, and the company says hundreds of millions have already been traded on 2028 nomination markets.