Ken Paxton’s last stand at the Alamo in doubt as stunning surge of new Hispanic voters floods Texas polls
More than 763,000 Texans who did not vote in the 2024 presidential election have cast early ballots, according to an analysis by Democratic data analyst Tom Bonier. The surge could matter in a close US Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico, with more than 367,000 of the new early voters identifying as Hispanic.
Bonier’s earlier figures found that 39 per cent of those Hispanic voters were under 30. Hispanic voters had shifted towards Donald Trump in 2024, particularly in the Rio Grande Valley, but the article suggests some may now be reacting to the administration’s immigration policies. Paxton also appears to have dropped a planned Alamo campaign stop; the site’s rules prohibit political advocacy gatherings, though it has a restricted free-speech zone. Polls cited in the article differ: one put Paxton ahead by one point, while a CNN/SSRS poll had Talarico ahead by six; the race is rated a toss-up.
In short
- Over 763,000 Texans who sat out 2024 have voted early.
- Hispanic voters make up nearly half of that group.
- Polls show a tight Paxton-Talarico Senate race.
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The case for
The influx of voters who sat out the 2024 presidential election could make the race more representative of Texans who have not recently been heard at the polls, and their choices may reflect concerns about the administration’s immigration policies. If Paxton’s support has softened among Hispanic voters, Talarico could gain an opening in a close contest, though the polling is mixed.
The case against
New early voters’ past turnout and Hispanic identity do not establish how they will vote, and their views are not uniform; some Hispanic voters moved towards Trump in 2024. The differing polls leave the race uncertain, so the reported surge alone does not show that Paxton is losing ground or that immigration policy is driving voters’ choices.
Explained simply
Texas is a large and politically diverse state where Republicans have usually won statewide elections in recent decades. Hispanic voters make up a substantial and growing part of its electorate, particularly in South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, and their choices can affect close races.
Ken Paxton is Texas’s Republican attorney general and James Talarico is a Democratic state lawmaker; both are competing for a US Senate seat. The Senate helps make federal laws and confirms senior government appointments, so the result could affect which party has more influence in Congress. Voters’ views on immigration and the policies of President Donald Trump’s administration are among the issues shaping the political context.
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