Labour gets hard Left Burnham bounce to overtake Reform in Mail poll-of-polls as voters ditch Polanski’s Greens
The Mail's poll-of-polls suggests Labour has moved ahead of Reform UK, attributed to a boost in support following Andy Burnham's rise to a leading position within the party. The shift also coincides with declining support for the Greens under Zack Polanski, suggesting some left-leaning voters are consolidating behind Labour rather than smaller parties, with implications for the broader shape of UK politics ahead of any future contest.
The report frames the movement as part of a wider realignment on the left, with Burnham's profile credited for lifting Labour's standing while Reform UK slips from its earlier polling lead. The piece also notes internal tensions, describing a fractious atmosphere among senior figures around Burnham as his influence grows, though specific poll figures and methodology were not detailed in the available text.
- Labour overtakes Reform UK in Mail's poll-of-polls
- Boost linked to Andy Burnham's rising influence
- Green Party support falls as voters shift to Labour
Both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Supporters of this shift would argue that Andy Burnham's rise gives Labour a clearer, more authentic left-of-centre identity that speaks to voters who felt alienated by technocratic centrism and had drifted towards the Greens or Reform out of frustration. They would say that consolidating left-leaning support behind one major party, rather than splitting it across smaller ones, is simply sound politics under a first-past-the-post system, reducing the risk of vote-splitting handing seats to Reform. For them, Burnham's growing influence reflects a healthy internal democracy responding to where the party's base actually stands, not a worrying lurch.
The case against
Sceptics would counter that a perceived move towards the party's left flank risks unsettling the broader coalition of centrist and swing voters that any governing party needs to build and hold, particularly with Reform still a strong electoral threat. They would point to the reported tensions among senior figures as evidence that internal factionalism, rather than unified strategy, is driving the polling movement, which could prove damaging if it spills into public disunity. For them, chasing a narrower ideological base at the expense of pragmatic, broad-tent politics is a gamble that could cost Labour support where it is most needed to win a general election.