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Tories estimate revised settlement plans could add £5.2bn to annual welfare bill
The Conservatives say Labour’s revised settlement plans could add £5.2 billion a year to welfare spending by 2030-31. The estimate centres on a change to Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood’s proposals after opposition from Labour MPs: many migrants will keep a five-year route to settlement and access to benefits.
The Conservatives estimate that 1.4 million of the 1.9 million foreign nationals expected to qualify for settlement by 2030 will remain on that route, while 500,000 will wait longer. Applying the current universal credit claimant rate for non-EU citizens with indefinite leave to remain, just under 32 per cent, to the 1.4 million group gives an estimated 446,352 claimants. At an average annual payment of £11,694, the party calculates a £5.2 billion yearly cost; the government disputes the analysis, saying it assumes the current system will continue unchanged.
In short
- Conservatives forecast a £5.2 billion annual welfare cost by 2030-31.
- Their estimate assumes about 446,000 additional universal credit claimants.
- The government says the calculation assumes no change to the current system.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
The Conservatives’ estimate highlights a potential long-term fiscal cost if large numbers of migrants gain settlement and benefit eligibility sooner than under the original plans. Using current claimant rates and average payments offers a concrete way to illustrate that exposure, and supporters of tighter settlement rules may argue that public spending and confidence in the immigration system require stricter conditions.
The case against
The government argues that the estimate projects today’s benefit system and claimant behaviour onto future years, even though policy and circumstances may change. Settlement does not mean everyone will claim universal credit, so applying the current rate to the whole eligible group may overstate the eventual cost; retaining the five-year route can also be defended as a fair, predictable path for people who have built lives in the UK.
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Originally published by Daily Mail as “Labour’s immigration U-turn to cost the British taxpayer an extra £5billion a year as up to 450,000 foreign nationals expected to sign up for benefits, Conservatives warn”.