LEE CARTER: 2026 election could all come down to just one type of voter

Pollster Lee Carter argues that the 2026 US midterms may hinge less on voters switching parties than on whether people turn out to vote. The distinction matters because recent elections suggest shifts in participation have outweighed changes in party choice, making registration and enthusiasm imperfect guides to who will win.

Carter cites Pew data showing that 12% of eligible voters skipped both the 2020 presidential election and the 2022 midterms; in 2024, Donald Trump won that group by 14 points, while voters who participated in all three elections split 50% for Trump and 48% for Kamala Harris. Between 2020 and 2022, only 6% of voters in both elections switched parties or chose a third-party candidate, while turnout was higher among Trump’s 2020 voters than Joe Biden’s. Republicans have improved their voter-registration margins since 2018 in four cited states, but a Pew survey found greater reported motivation among Democratic supporters of House candidates, leaving actual turnout as the key uncertainty.