Houthi rebels have made a rapid and unexpected military advance across southern Yemen's Tihamah coastal plain, seizing as much as 130km of strategically vital Red Sea coastline from the Saudi-backed National Resistance coalition in a matter of days. Analysts say it is the group's most significant territorial gain in years, demonstrating that despite 12 years of civil war and repeated strikes by Saudi, American, Israeli and British forces, the Houthis remain a formidable and deeply entrenched force. The advance matters beyond Yemen because it hands Iran, the Houthis' main backer, even greater potential influence over global shipping routes at a time when Tehran has been redirecting support to the group following setbacks suffered by its other regional allies.

Experts warn the gains, which reportedly include control of islands such as Perim near the narrow Bab al-Mandab strait, could give the Houthis significantly more leverage over vessels transiting towards the Suez Canal, building on the disruption they already caused during the Gaza war. Chatham House's Farea al-Muslimi noted that Iran now effectively controls, directly or through proxies, both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab, choke points handling over 35% of global fuel and oil trade, comparing the leverage to possessing a nuclear weapon. The Houthis have claimed shipping remains safe except for Saudi vessels, though their record of striking unrelated ships, including a Norwegian tanker, has left shipping firms sceptical, while analysts note the group may still be wary of provoking another US military response like 2025's Operation Rough Rider.