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Lula’s victory is a stress test for the Global South
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s re-election has sharpened the contest between the United States and China for influence in Brazil, but the article argues it is a test of whether Global South countries can sustain an independent course. US President Donald Trump has imposed tariffs and sanctions on Brazil, while China has backed Lula and expanded economic ties; the pressure now facing Brazil will show how durable those ties are.
Brazil exported about $100bn in goods to China last year, nearly three times its exports to the US, and Chinese companies are investing in energy and electric vehicles. Lula also wants Brazil to process more of its critical minerals domestically, while a proposed railway could connect Brazil’s Atlantic coast with Peru’s Chinese-built port. Yet Lula faces a right-wing majority in Congress, economic discontent and limited time to secure lasting trade and financial arrangements.
In short
- Lula’s re-election tests Brazil’s ability to resist US pressure.
- China is Brazil’s largest trading partner, with exports near $100bn.
- Domestic political and economic strains limit Lula’s room to manoeuvre.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Brazil should use its economic weight and ties with China to widen its choices, process more minerals at home and attract investment in energy and transport. A more independent course could help it pursue its own development priorities and give other Global South countries greater room to negotiate with powerful states.
The case against
Deepening reliance on China could replace one external dependency with another, while exposing Brazil to pressure if political or economic conditions shift. Maintaining strong ties with the United States and diversifying partners may offer more resilience, especially given domestic constraints and uncertainty about whether proposed investments and trade arrangements will endure.