Michael Carrick remains favourite in the Premier League sack race | Andrew Beasley
No Premier League club has changed manager so far this season, an unusual pause that has lasted into November. With about a quarter of the campaign played, Michael Carrick is still the leading candidate to be the first manager dismissed, while the article examines the pressures facing the managers of the three clubs in the relegation zone.
Sunderland’s Régis Le Bris has faced a difficult run of opponents and his side have scored 6.2 fewer goals than expected; their next five league games include Chelsea, Aston Villa, Tottenham, Liverpool and Newcastle. Nottingham Forest have scored only six times despite an expected-goals tally of 14.7, while their expected goals on target are 7.4. The article argues that Forest’s finishing may improve, but questions whether owner Evangelos Marinakis will give Oliver Glasner time; it also flags Crystal Palace’s low sprint count and weaker underlying figures.
In short
- No Premier League managers have been sacked this season.
- Michael Carrick remains the leading candidate to leave.
- Forest’s six goals fall well short of their 14.7 expected goals.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Keeping managers in post can give teams time to recover from difficult fixtures, poor finishing or misleading early-season results, and avoids the disruption of changing leadership before there is enough evidence to judge performance. Sunderland’s tough run and Forest’s gap between expected and actual goals suggest their results may improve, while stability can help players and staff build a coherent approach.
The case against
Clubs facing relegation may see early action as necessary to arrest a slide before points become harder to recover, and a manager’s underlying performance matters alongside unlucky finishing or a tough schedule. Sunderland’s low output, Forest’s poor scoring and Palace’s weaker indicators could point to deeper problems, while owners may reasonably conclude that a change offers the best chance of improving results.
Explained simply
Premier League clubs can replace their manager during the season, often when results are poor or a team looks at risk of relegation. The “sack race” is an informal way of discussing which manager might be dismissed first; it is not an official competition.
The managers under pressure are Régis Le Bris at Sunderland, Oliver Glasner at Nottingham Forest and Michael Carrick, who is named in the headline as the leading candidate. Their clubs’ positions and performances shape the speculation, alongside factors such as the strength of upcoming opponents and whether chances are being turned into goals.
A change of manager can affect a club’s plans, players and results, while relegation from the Premier League brings major sporting and financial consequences. Owners also decide how much time a manager gets, so poor results do not automatically mean a dismissal.
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