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Midterms Blue Wave Makes $917K for One Polymarket Trader, If Alaska Doesn’t Flip
A Polymarket trader known as 0xA2 has built up a reported $917,000 in profit during the US midterm elections, largely from betting that Republicans would win none of the Senate swing states. Most of the gains are unrealised and depend on Alaska’s final result, so an upset could sharply reduce the trader’s profit.
The trader staked $609,644 when the market put the outcome at 36%; its odds later rose to 87%, valuing the position at $1.48 million and showing about $860,000 in profit. A separate $106,115 profit from predicting a Democratic win in Texas has been realised. Polymarket users made more than $170,000 in total among the platform’s ten biggest daily winners, while midterm markets recorded over $546 million in notional volume across Polymarket and Kalshi over two weeks. Traders put the chance of Alaska reversing the result at 14%, a risk the article says should not be dismissed.
In short
- 0xA2’s reported profit reached $917,000 during the midterms.
- Most gains depend on Alaska’s final Senate result.
- Midterm prediction markets drew over $546 million in volume.
Explained simply
US midterm elections take place halfway through a president’s four-year term. Voters choose members of Congress, including all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and roughly a third of the Senate; states also hold other elections. The results can change which party controls Congress and how easily the president can advance their plans.
Polymarket is a website where people trade contracts tied to the outcome of events, including elections. The contract prices are often read as the market’s estimate of the chance of an outcome, but they can change as people trade and are not a guarantee of the result. A trader’s displayed profit on an open position is not final: it depends on the outcome and may change before the position is settled.
Alaska is one of the Senate contests relevant to the reported bets, and its final result could affect whether those positions pay out as expected. Large sums traded on election outcomes show how prediction markets attract attention during closely watched races, but their prices reflect traders’ views rather than an official election count.
Americas Elections Politics World