Millions of dollars poured into prediction markets on election night, trading on Democratic control of Congress and Texas governor’s race

Prediction markets drew millions of dollars in trades on US midterm election night, as traders bet on control of Congress and individual races. Their performance has prompted debate over whether the markets independently forecast results or were influenced by established political models.

After 8 p.m. on 3 November, at least $1 million was traded on Kalshi contracts predicting Greg Abbott would win Texas’s governorship; he lost to Democrat Gina Hinojosa by more than 700,000 votes. Shortly after 11 p.m., more than $1.4 million was traded on a Kalshi contract predicting Republicans would not control the House. Midterm contract trading across Kalshi and Polymarket more than tripled from the final week of October to election week; Kalshi reported over $3 billion in total midterm volume, including mayoral races, while Polymarket’s two exchanges reported nearly $700 million. Forecaster Nate Silver argued that market probabilities had converged towards forecast models, and Senator Adam Schiff later criticised the federal regulator’s handling of sports contracts.