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Mississippi’s Unbelievable Blue Turn
Scott Colom, a Democrat, leads Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith by 28 votes in Mississippi’s exceptionally close Senate race, with more than 95 per cent of ballots counted. If the result holds, Colom would become the state’s first Black senator since Reconstruction; his strong showing in a reliably Republican state could also signal changing electoral dynamics.
Mississippi has the country’s largest share of Black residents, about 37 per cent, but its history includes voter suppression and high rates of felony disenfranchisement: at least 43,700 Black residents were unable to vote in 2024. Around 15,000 affidavit ballots remain, and the outcome must be certified by 13 November; Mississippi has no automatic recount law. Colom campaigned on raising the minimum wage, protecting rural hospitals from Medicaid cuts and ensuring data centres pay for their power and hire local workers.
In short
- Scott Colom leads Cindy Hyde-Smith by 28 votes.
- About 15,000 affidavit ballots remain uncounted.
- A win would make Colom Mississippi’s first Black senator since Reconstruction.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Colom’s narrow lead could reflect voters’ desire for policies aimed at working families and rural communities, including a higher minimum wage, hospital protections and local benefits from data centres. His strong showing may also indicate that Mississippi’s electorate is changing, making the result a meaningful test of whether a Democrat can build support across the state.
The case against
Hyde-Smith’s supporters could argue that a close count is not a settled result: thousands of affidavit ballots remain, and the state must complete its certification process before declaring a winner. They may also caution that one unusually close race does not by itself establish a lasting political realignment, and that voters may reasonably prefer the incumbent’s approach to the Senate and state priorities.
Explained simply
Mississippi is a strongly Republican state, so a close Senate contest between Democrat Scott Colom and Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith has drawn attention. The Senate represents each state in the US Congress, where it shares responsibility for making federal laws and approving spending.
Mississippi has the largest share of Black residents of any US state, at about 37 per cent. Its history includes laws and practices that restricted Black people’s voting rights, and many residents with felony convictions remain barred from voting.
Colom’s campaign focused on issues including wages, rural hospitals and the local costs and jobs linked to data centres. A close result could affect how the state is represented in the Senate and prompt attention to its changing electorate.