More Australians will be dying than being born in 40 years as major report predicts future of lower growth
Australia's government has released its seventh intergenerational report, which projects that deaths will outnumber births by the 2060s due to falling fertility rates and an ageing population. This represents a fundamental shift in Australia's demographic structure and signals major challenges for managing the economy and public services over the next four decades.
The report forecasts population growth slowing to 0.9% annually (down from 1.4% historically), with per-person GDP growth declining to 1.2% over the next 40 years (from 1.5% previously). These projections depend significantly on artificial intelligence driving productivity improvements, as productivity has been near zero in recent years; the government also projects an ongoing structural budget deficit, with government spending rising to 27.4% of GDP by the mid-2060s.
- Australia projects deaths to outnumber births by 2060s due to declining fertility rates.
- Economic growth and living standards improvements will slow considerably in coming decades.
- AI adoption will be crucial for achieving productivity improvements and future prosperity.