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Morning update
Iranian media reported that Tehran does not plan to attend talks with the United States in Pakistan, despite Donald Trump ordering US negotiators to travel there on Monday. The uncertainty comes days before a Middle East ceasefire is due to expire, while Trump said there may be no need for further strikes on Iran because negotiations appear to be delivering what the US wants.
Iranian negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf linked Republicans’ losses in the US midterm elections to opposition to the war, saying Americans had voted “no to war”. Trump acknowledged the conflict may have contributed to the result. Separately, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said four oil tankers were destroyed after hitting naval mines near a prohibited route in the Strait of Hormuz and that two other vessels were intercepted; Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid accused government supporters of threatening democracy.
In short
- Iran reportedly does not plan to attend US talks in Pakistan.
- The ceasefire is due to expire in a few days.
- Iran’s Revolutionary Guard reported damage to six vessels near Hormuz.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
A US advocate for continuing talks could argue that Iran’s reported reluctance does not make diplomacy futile: Trump says negotiations may already be securing US objectives, and avoiding further strikes could reduce the risk of a wider conflict. With the ceasefire nearing expiry, sending negotiators keeps open a route to de-escalation and gives both sides a chance to test whether a settlement is possible.
The case against
A sceptic could argue that talks have little value without Iran’s participation, and that Tehran’s reported refusal leaves the US negotiating without a clear counterpart as the ceasefire deadline approaches. They may also see the tanker incidents and disputed claims around the Strait of Hormuz as evidence that the security situation remains dangerous, making reliance on negotiations alone an uncertain way to protect shipping and deter further escalation.
Explained simply
Iran and the United States have been in conflict over Iran’s nuclear programme, regional influence and US sanctions. Pakistan has at times served as a venue for contacts between the two countries, which do not have normal diplomatic relations.
The talks matter because a ceasefire in the Middle East is nearing its end, and negotiations could affect whether fighting resumes. The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow passage used by oil tankers to carry energy supplies from the Gulf, so disruption there can affect shipping and oil markets.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf is an Iranian politician involved in the talks, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is a powerful branch of Iran’s armed forces. In Israel, Yair Lapid is an opposition leader; his comments concern domestic political tensions rather than the negotiations between Iran and the United States.
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