Nine oil majors forecast to earn over $95bn amid Iran war disruption
Nine of the world’s largest listed oil producers are expected to report more than $95bn in combined profits for the third quarter, as the Iran war disrupted supplies and drove up fossil fuel prices. The figures have renewed calls for oil companies to contribute towards climate damage and the shift to renewable energy, while households face higher energy costs.
AJ Bell’s analysis covers the three months to the end of September and follows combined profits of $96bn in the previous quarter. Saudi Aramco is forecast to report net income of about $30bn, up 7%, while BP has already reported $8.46bn in quarterly profits, its highest since 2008. Refining gains helped lift earnings, and campaigners are urging the UK government to avoid tax breaks for Rosebank, a proposed North Sea oilfield whose approval is under consideration.
In short
- Nine major oil firms are on course for more than $95bn in quarterly profits.
- Aramco is forecast to make $30bn; BP reported $8.46bn.
- Campaigners want oil companies to fund the shift to renewables.
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The case for
Oil producers can argue that high profits reflect the value of supplying energy during a major disruption, and that reliable oil and gas remain important to households and industry while alternatives are scaled up. Stable returns can also fund investment in energy supply and lower-carbon technologies; imposing extra taxes or restricting projects such as Rosebank could, they say, deter investment and increase reliance on imports.
The case against
Critics can argue that companies benefiting from disruption and higher prices should contribute more when households bear rising energy costs, especially given the climate damage associated with fossil fuels. They say windfall profits strengthen the case for targeted taxes and for directing public support towards renewables rather than new oilfields, which could prolong emissions and delay the energy transition.
Explained simply
Oil companies find and produce crude oil and natural gas, which are used for transport, heating and industry. Their earnings can rise when supplies are disrupted and prices increase, though results also depend on production and refining costs.
The companies in the report include Saudi Aramco, a state-owned Saudi producer, and BP, a UK-based energy company. Their profits matter because energy prices affect household bills and business costs, while the companies’ investment choices influence how quickly energy systems move towards lower-carbon sources.
Rosebank is a proposed oilfield in the North Sea, and its approval is under consideration by the UK government. The debate over possible tax relief reflects wider questions about public support for new oil production and how its costs and benefits are shared.
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Originally published by The Guardian as “Nine big oil firms on track to share more than £95bn profit two quarters in a row”.