Nuggets and Rockets offer the best long-shot value in the NBA championship futures market
The article assesses the NBA championship futures market ahead of the new season, arguing that the Denver Nuggets and Houston Rockets offer better long-shot value than the Western Conference favourites. It also backs Philadelphia in the East, while suggesting last season’s champion New York Knicks may struggle to repeat.
The writer picks the 76ers at +900, citing Tyrese Maxey, Joel Embiid, Jaylen Brown and LeBron James, but notes Embiid’s health is a concern. In the West, Oklahoma City and San Antonio are each priced at +270, which the writer considers poor value; Denver is priced at +2500, with its top player and improved bench seen as strengths, while Houston is at +5000 and could benefit if Fred VanVleet returns effectively from a torn ACL.
- The 76ers are the writer’s pick to win the East at +900.
- Denver is tipped as a long-shot bet at +2500.
- Houston is priced at +5000, with VanVleet’s return a key factor.
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Each NBA season begins with every team competing for the league championship, with teams first playing in the Eastern or Western Conference. Futures odds are prices offered on who will win the title; longer odds generally mean a smaller implied chance, though they can offer a larger potential payout.
The Denver Nuggets and Houston Rockets are Western Conference teams, while the Philadelphia 76ers play in the East. Their prospects depend on factors such as the strength of their players and squad depth, as well as injuries: Philadelphia’s Joel Embiid has had health concerns, and Houston’s Fred VanVleet is recovering from a torn ACL.
Both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
The case for Denver and Houston as long-shot bets is that their prices may understate plausible routes to a title: Denver still has elite top-end talent and a stronger bench, while Houston has room to improve if Fred VanVleet returns effectively. Compared with heavily favoured Oklahoma City and San Antonio, the longer odds could offer better value to bettors willing to accept greater uncertainty.
The case against
The case against these long shots is that championship odds reflect the difficulty of winning four play-off rounds, and Denver or Houston may be less reliable than the Western favourites across a full season and post-season. Houston’s outlook depends partly on VanVleet’s recovery, while Denver’s depth and star power may still not be enough to overcome stronger rivals; longer odds can reflect those real weaknesses rather than a pricing mistake.