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Special votes could reshape New Zealand’s narrow election majority
New Zealand’s election has left the next government uncertain: preliminary results give the incumbent centre-right coalition a narrow majority, but special votes could change the balance. The final count is due on 27 November, delaying coalition negotiations and leaving both major blocs with a possible route to power.
National won 42 seats, Act 13 and New Zealand First 12, giving them 67 seats; Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori hold 56, with centrist Opportunity’s seven seats potentially relevant if the count shifts. National leads Labour by just 0.02% in the party vote, while Opportunity has entered parliament for the first time since the MMP system began in 1996. Special votes include overseas ballots and votes cast outside a voter’s electorate; in 2023, 600,000 such votes made up 21% of the total and helped left-leaning parties gain seats.
In short
- Preliminary results give the right coalition a narrow majority.
- Special votes could alter the balance before the final count.
- Opportunity has entered parliament for the first time under MMP.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
The preliminary result gives National, Act and New Zealand First a narrow majority, which supports the view that voters have provided a mandate for them to form the next government. Special votes are part of the normal election process, and the result should be treated as provisional until all eligible ballots are counted.
The case against
Because the majority is narrow and special votes have previously shifted seats towards left-leaning parties, the preliminary tally may not reflect the final balance of parliamentary support. Waiting for the full count respects voters whose ballots are still being processed and leaves open a credible path for Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori to form a government, potentially with Opportunity’s support.
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Originally published by The Guardian as “NZ election 2026: New Zealand faces weeks of uncertainty with results ‘too close to call’”.