One Nation brings tough fight to Labor safe seat in tense by-election
Labor faces a tougher-than-expected by-election in Western Australia’s Secret Harbour after minister Paul Papalia retired mid-term. The contest matters as One Nation’s growing local campaign could cut into Labor’s 11.5 per cent margin and signal broader electoral pressure on the major parties.
Polling cited in the article puts Labor on 33 per cent of the primary vote statewide, while One Nation has risen to 21 per cent, level with the Liberals. Premier Roger Cook acknowledged the seat would be difficult to retain, although Labor holds 46 of 59 lower-house seats; the result may also draw attention to federal Liberal Andrew Hastie’s nearby marginal seat of Canning.
- Labor’s Secret Harbour margin faces a One Nation challenge.
- One Nation is polling level with the Liberals statewide.
- Result may affect attention on federal seat Canning.
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Secret Harbour is a state electorate in Western Australia, south of Perth. It has usually been held by the Australian Labor Party, which leads the state government under Premier Roger Cook, but voters must now choose a new local representative after the previous member left Parliament.
One Nation is a national political party led by Pauline Hanson and is campaigning more strongly in parts of Western Australia. The Liberal Party is Labor’s main long-standing opponent, while the result may also be watched for what it suggests about support for the major parties in nearby areas.
Both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Supporters of One Nation’s challenge may argue that a strong result would give voice to voters who feel established parties have taken outer-suburban communities for granted. They may see it as a legitimate demand for greater responsiveness on household pressures, local services and representation, and as a useful check on a government with a large parliamentary majority.
The case against
Supporters of Labor retaining the seat may argue that voters should judge the government on its record and choose an experienced representative able to work constructively within government for Secret Harbour. They may contend that an individual by-election, following a long-serving member’s retirement, is an unreliable measure of wider public sentiment and that protest voting can obscure the practical consequences for local representation.