Ofgem warns Britain could face winter gas shortages in severe cold
Ofgem warned that Britain could face a gas shortfall this winter if demand peaks during very cold weather and a major supply source fails. The regulator said resilience has weakened as North Sea reserves fall and imports decline, prompting political criticism over the country’s preparedness and reliance on overseas supplies.
Ofgem said a negative supply margin could arise on a “1-in-20” cold day if the largest element of gas infrastructure were lost, and warned the position could tighten further in future. It has approved a gas agreement with Belgium, while the newly approved Jackdaw North Sea project is expected to raise domestic gas production by around 6 per cent at its peak. Ministers say the gas will mainly serve the UK market, but acknowledge the project will contribute to climate change and will not lower prices.
In short
- Ofgem warned a severe cold snap and major outage could leave gas supplies short.
- Falling North Sea reserves and lower imports have reduced supply resilience.
- Jackdaw is expected to lift peak domestic gas production by around 6 per cent.
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The case for
Those prioritising energy security argue that declining North Sea output and imports leave Britain more exposed to severe cold or a major supply failure. They see domestic production, alongside agreements with neighbouring countries, as a prudent way to strengthen resilience and reduce reliance on potentially disrupted overseas supplies.
The case against
Those prioritising climate goals and the costs of new extraction argue that more North Sea gas would contribute to climate change while, as ministers acknowledge, doing little to lower bills. They favour reducing demand and accelerating cleaner energy, while weighing whether import links and other measures can manage the risk without committing to additional fossil fuel production.
Explained simply
Britain uses gas to heat many homes and businesses, and to generate some of its electricity. Supplies come from UK fields, imports delivered by pipeline and shipments of liquefied gas; the North Sea has long been an important source, but its output has declined.
Ofgem is the energy regulator and monitors whether supplies can meet demand, which rises in cold weather. Its warning concerns an unusually cold day combined with the loss of the country’s largest gas supply or infrastructure source; it describes a possible shortfall under those conditions, rather than a prediction that supplies will run out.
The issue involves ministers, energy companies and countries supplying gas to Britain. A new agreement with Belgium and the Jackdaw project in the North Sea are intended to contribute to supply, while also raising questions about reliance on imports, energy security and the effects of continued gas production on climate change.
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Originally published by Daily Mail as “Outrage as Ofgem admits Britain could run out of gas”.