Labour favoured as voters choose Starmer’s successor in Holborn and St Pancras
The Holborn & St Pancras by-election is taking place today as voters choose a successor to Keir Starmer's former seat. Green Party leader Zack Polanski is contesting against Labour's Sagal Abdi-Wali, who is favoured by bookmakers; however, Polanski insists his party can triumph, claiming recent polling suggests the outcome could depend on just a few hundred votes. The result will be significant for both parties in assessing their electoral standing.
A Poll Check projection indicates Labour could secure 40.4 per cent of the vote with the Greens achieving 35.6 per cent. The Holborn & St Pancras seat has been held by Labour continuously since its creation in 1983, with Starmer winning it in 2024 with 48.9 per cent of the vote. Polanski shortened his attendance at the Greens' annual conference to focus on campaigning, whilst Labour has highlighted Abdi-Wali's commitment to local issues including rough sleeping, housing and water industry reform.
- Green leader Zack Polanski challenges Labour favourite Sagal Abdi-Wali for Holborn seat
- Polls show a very close race that could be decided by hundreds of votes
- The result comes as Greens seek to maintain recent electoral gains
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Holborn and St Pancras is a London constituency that has consistently elected Labour MPs since it was created in 1983. The seat is now vacant because Keir Starmer, who held it, has become Prime Minister.
The by-election is primarily contested between Labour's Sagal Abdi-Wali and Zack Polanski, the leader of the Green Party. Labour won this seat with nearly half the votes in the last general election, though recent polling suggests the race could depend on just a few hundred votes.
The result will be a significant test for both parties' standing in this London constituency. A Labour win would confirm the party's continued dominance of the area, whilst a Green victory would suggest they are making electoral progress in urban areas.
Both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Labour's continuous representation of this seat since 1983, including winning it with 48.9 per cent in 2024, demonstrates strong constituent faith and deep institutional knowledge of local needs. Sagal Abdi-Wali's campaign priorities around rough sleeping, housing, and water reform address the immediate challenges facing residents, and Labour's position as the governing party provides the resources and legislative capacity to deliver meaningful change on these issues.
The case against
The Green Party represents a substantial and growing constituency prioritising environmental and climate justice, issues that define modern progressive politics and will shape constituents' futures. Zack Polanski's competitive candidacy, with polling suggesting the race could be decided by only hundreds of votes, signals that voters may be ready to broaden their representation beyond traditional patterns and inject sustained pressure on environmental accountability.
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Originally published by Daily Mail as “Polanski’s moment of truth: Green leader insists he ‘can win’ Holborn by-election as voting gets under way with Labour confidence growing”.