Labour favoured as voters choose Starmer’s successor in Holborn and St Pancras
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Polls have opened in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, with Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali favoured to succeed Keir Starmer and Green leader Zack Polanski arguing the contest is close. The result will test whether the Greens can sustain their recent electoral momentum in a seat Labour has held since it was created in 1983.
A Poll Check projection puts Labour on 40.4 per cent and the Greens on 35.6 per cent, though Polanski said the margin could be only a few hundred votes. Starmer won the seat in 2024 with 48.9 per cent; 13 other candidates are standing, including the Conservatives, Reform UK, Liberal Democrats and Workers Party of Britain.
- Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali is favoured in the by-election.
- Zack Polanski says the contest could be close.
- Labour has held the seat since its creation in 1983.
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Holborn and St Pancras is a London constituency that has consistently elected Labour MPs since it was created in 1983. The seat is now vacant because Keir Starmer, who held it, has become Prime Minister.
The by-election is primarily contested between Labour's Sagal Abdi-Wali and Zack Polanski, the leader of the Green Party. Labour won this seat with nearly half the votes in the last general election, though recent polling suggests the race could depend on just a few hundred votes.
The result will be a significant test for both parties' standing in this London constituency. A Labour win would confirm the party's continued dominance of the area, whilst a Green victory would suggest they are making electoral progress in urban areas.
Both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Labour's continuous representation of this seat since 1983, including winning it with 48.9 per cent in 2024, demonstrates strong constituent faith and deep institutional knowledge of local needs. Sagal Abdi-Wali's campaign priorities around rough sleeping, housing, and water reform address the immediate challenges facing residents, and Labour's position as the governing party provides the resources and legislative capacity to deliver meaningful change on these issues.
The case against
The Green Party represents a substantial and growing constituency prioritising environmental and climate justice, issues that define modern progressive politics and will shape constituents' futures. Zack Polanski's competitive candidacy, with polling suggesting the race could be decided by only hundreds of votes, signals that voters may be ready to broaden their representation beyond traditional patterns and inject sustained pressure on environmental accountability.
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Originally published by Daily Mail as “Polanski’s moment of truth: Green leader insists he ‘can win’ Holborn by-election as voting gets under way with Labour confidence growing”.