Poll shows Hochul adding to lead over Blakeman in New York governor’s race: ‘Running out of time’
Kathy Hochul has widened her lead over Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman to 14 points in a new poll of likely New York voters, with Election Day a week away. The result suggests Blakeman has limited time to make up ground in a state where Democrats hold a substantial voter registration advantage.
The Siena Research Institute survey puts Hochul at 54% and Blakeman at 40%, compared with a nine-point lead for Hochul in September. They are nearly tied upstate and in the downstate suburbs, while Hochul leads independents by 11 points; 35% of voters said neither candidate would make life more affordable. Hochul’s favourability and job approval both reached 51%, and 68% expect her to win. The poll surveyed 807 likely voters from 19 to 22 October and has a margin of error of 4.1 percentage points.
In short
- Hochul leads Blakeman by 14 points.
- Her lead has widened since September.
- Most surveyed voters expect Hochul to win.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Hochul’s widening lead may reflect voters’ confidence in her experience and record, as well as a preference for continuity in a state where Democrats have a clear registration advantage. Her support across the electorate and the large share expecting her to win suggest many voters see her as the safer choice, even though affordability remains a concern.
The case against
Blakeman can argue that a poll lead does not settle the race, particularly with a week left and the candidates nearly tied in some regions. Voters’ concern about affordability gives him a reason to press for change, while the poll’s margin of error and the large number who expect Hochul to win could leave room for late movement.
Explained simply
New York’s governor leads the state government and is elected by voters statewide. Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, is seeking another term; Bruce Blakeman, a Republican, is challenging her. Democrats have many more registered voters in New York than Republicans, though voters can still choose either candidate.
The race matters because the governor can shape state policy and spending, including decisions affecting the cost of living. Voters’ views on affordability and on Hochul’s record are among the factors that may influence the contest. A poll is a snapshot of opinion among the people surveyed, rather than a prediction of the result.