Polling experts hail ‘great night’ after correctly calling most key US midterm election races

Polling experts say surveys performed well in the US midterm elections, correctly predicting the broad Democratic gains and most key races. Their accuracy drew particular attention after polls underestimated Donald Trump in the 2016, 2020 and 2024 presidential elections.

Democrats won both chambers of Congress, and the final New York Times/Siena poll correctly forecast Democratic victories in six Senate races: Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. In several states, Democrats did better than polls suggested, reversing the recent pattern of polls underestimating Republican support. Experts said turnout remains difficult to predict, while declining response rates and differences in who agrees to take part continue to challenge pollsters.