The proportion of migrant boats intercepted by French authorities before crossing the Channel has slipped slightly, despite vessels growing much larger and, in theory, easier to detect. Analysis found France stopped 56 per cent of attempted crossings in the year to 2 August 2026, down from 57 per cent the previous year, even though the average number of migrants per boat has more than doubled since 2021. The figures raise questions about the effectiveness of a deal signed by Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood in April, under which the UK is paying France £500million unconditionally plus up to £160million in performance-related funding to curb crossings.

Of 1,057 attempted crossings in the latest year, only 598 boats carrying 14,462 migrants were halted, compared with 1,057 of 1,849 boats carrying 30,012 migrants stopped the year before. The average number of migrants per vessel has risen from 27 in 2021 to almost 70 this year, with a record "mega-dinghy" carrying 230 people reaching Dover on Monday, taking the total crossings since Labour took office past 80,000. Critics including Conservative shadow home secretary Chris Philp, Reform UK's Zia Yusuf and former Border Force chief Tony Smith questioned why larger, slower-moving boats are not being intercepted more often, with Smith suggesting satellite technology should make them easier to spot before launch.