A new analysis from Ampere Analysis warns that if Sony's PS6 and Microsoft's next Xbox launch at a $1,000 price point, sales could fall by as much as 40% compared with the PS5, driven largely by soaring component costs linked to AI-related demand. The findings, first reported by Push Square, suggest neither manufacturer is directly at fault for the price pressure, but the consequences could reshape the next console generation, with knock-on effects for spending on subscriptions, games and microtransactions industry-wide.

Ampere's report models a "conventionally designed, incrementally improved" next-gen console launching in 2028 at $1,000, estimating total industry sales would be 12% lower than if consoles launched at $700 instead. The analysis combines projected PS6 and Xbox Helix sales, with Sony's console likely to be hit hardest given the PS5's stronger overall performance versus the current Xbox. Ampere suggests manufacturers could delay launches until cost pressures ease or pursue a "Wii-like" approach offering new experiences on cheaper hardware, though Sony has not yet confirmed a PS6 launch timeline.