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Red counties with data center projects swung away from GOP in midterms, analysis finds
A conservative group’s analysis found that counties hosting large data centres shifted further towards Democrats in the 2026 midterm elections than similar counties without projects. The findings point to a possible political cost for Republicans as data centre development becomes a local issue, but they show an association and cannot establish that the projects caused the shift.
The analysis covered election returns and project records in 1,540 counties across 16 states. Host counties shifted an additional 2.2 percentage points towards Democrats, with a 2.1-point gap in deep-red counties; among deep-red counties with proposed projects, the adjusted gap was 1.1 points. The group identified 114 proposed projects in 92 deep-red counties, while separate reporting found voters backed restrictions or rejected supportive measures in 46 of 47 local data-centre ballot measures in 2026.
In short
- Data-centre host counties shifted further towards Democrats.
- The analysis found an association, not proof of cause.
- 114 proposed projects were identified in deep-red counties.
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The case for
The shift and widespread opposition in local ballot measures suggest that data centre projects can become a political liability for Republicans, especially where residents worry about electricity demand, water use, land, or who benefits economically. Even though the analysis cannot show the projects caused the voting change, its county comparisons and the pattern of ballot results give party leaders reason to take local concerns seriously.
The case against
The analysis shows an association, not proof that data centre development drove voters towards Democrats; other differences between counties or election-specific factors may explain the gap. Projects may also bring investment, jobs, and infrastructure, so Republicans could reasonably argue that opposition to particular developments does not establish a broader electoral cost and that well-planned projects can serve local interests.