Polling experts say Reform UK could fall to third place behind Labour and the Conservatives, as the party’s support declines alongside Nigel Farage’s personal ratings. This matters because Reform had led national polls for more than a year, but its heavy dependence on Farage may now be turning into a weakness amid controversy over his finances and a possible parliamentary investigation.

Labour has moved ahead of Reform in several polls after Andy Burnham became prime minister, while Lord Hayward believes the Conservatives could also overtake it soon. Peter Kellner said Reform appears to lose roughly two points for every point gained by the Conservatives, with voters also moving to Labour and Restore; its geographically dispersed support may make translating lower poll ratings into parliamentary seats especially difficult. Farage denies wrongdoing over an unregistered £5m gift from a donor, but an adverse investigation finding could lead to another Clacton by-election.