Reform UK’s support collapses in major boost for Burnham, new poll shows
An Ipsos poll puts Reform UK on 20 per cent, four points behind the Conservatives, whose 24 per cent is their biggest lead over Reform since the 2024 general election. Labour has risen to 32 per cent, its strongest rating since that election, and the figures suggest Andy Burnham’s party could win a large Commons majority.
Electoral Calculus estimates Labour would secure a majority of 134 seats, compared with 167 in July 2024. Ipsos research director Keiran Pedley said the figures reflect a longer shift in support but cautioned against reading too much into one poll, given the volatility of British politics. Reform was polling above 30 per cent a year ago and has faced several controversies and investigations; the poll also puts the Greens on 8 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on 9 per cent.
In short
- Reform falls to 20 per cent, behind the Conservatives on 24 per cent.
- Labour reaches 32 per cent, its highest rating since the 2024 election.
- The poll projects a Labour majority of 134 seats.
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The case for
The poll may indicate a meaningful shift in public support: Labour is at its strongest level since the 2024 election, while Reform has fallen sharply from its position a year ago. If that pattern holds, it could reflect voters reassessing Reform after controversies and investigations, and strengthen the case that Labour can offer stable government with a substantial Commons majority.
The case against
A single poll is an uncertain snapshot, especially in volatile British politics, and projected seat totals depend on assumptions about how national support translates into constituencies. The figures do not establish why support has moved or whether the change will last, so it would be premature to treat them as proof of a settled realignment or of a likely Labour majority.