A new poll suggests Republican former congressman Mike Rogers holds a double-digit lead over Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in a potential Michigan Senate contest, while he is level with Democratic representative Haley Stevens. The findings matter because the open-seat race is expected to be highly competitive and could affect control of the US Senate after the midterm elections.

The Rosetta Stone poll, conducted from 23 to 25 October, put Rogers 14 points ahead of El-Sayed. It also found Republicans with double-digit advantages over a generic Democratic candidate on crime and immigration; the reported tie with Stevens indicates that the Democratic primary result could substantially shape the general-election contest.