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Russia, China may be more aggressive if they feel Trump is on ‘his way out’: Brookings
A Brookings analyst has warned that Russia and China could act more assertively if they believe Donald Trump is nearing the end of his political influence. Robert Kagan said reduced US military capacity and a focus on economic deals with China may encourage Beijing to take greater risks, with possible consequences for regional security.
The article says US budget reports estimate that conflict-related deployments since June 2025 have used as much as two-thirds of US missile-defence interceptors, while three aircraft carriers sent to the Middle East have reduced the naval presence available in Asia. Trump approved an $11 billion arms package for Taiwan but held back a further package worth about $14 billion, describing it as a bargaining chip. The US, China and Russia are discussing a possible leaders’ summit at the APEC meeting in Shenzhen later this month; no agenda has been announced.
In short
- Brookings’ Robert Kagan warns Russia and China may see an opening.
- US military resources have been drawn towards the Middle East.
- A possible Trump, Xi and Putin summit is under discussion.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
If Beijing or Moscow believes US attention and military resources are stretched, or that Washington’s commitments may soon weaken, they may see a narrowing window to advance their interests. From this perspective, credible deterrence and clear support for allies such as Taiwan reduce the risk that miscalculation leads to a wider conflict.
The case against
Predictions that China or Russia will become more aggressive may overstate the effect of US deployments and political uncertainty, while treating a possible summit or arms negotiations as signs of weakness could needlessly heighten tensions. A deal-focused approach and holding some arms sales in reserve could preserve diplomatic leverage, while avoiding escalation and maintaining room for negotiation.
Explained simply
The United States, China and Russia are major powers whose decisions can affect security well beyond their borders. Taiwan is a self-governing island that China claims as part of its territory, while the United States supplies it with weapons and maintains a significant military presence in the wider Asia-Pacific region.
Donald Trump’s approach to foreign policy includes seeking economic agreements and negotiating directly with other leaders. Robert Kagan is a foreign policy analyst at the Brookings Institution, a US research organisation. Debates about US military resources and its commitments in different regions matter because allies and rivals may take account of how much support Washington can provide.
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